From Cnet
Near-record ocean temperatures, La Nina conditions, and reduced Atlantic trade winds could cause major storm activity.
Residents of hurricane-prone regions may want to start preparing now, because this hurricane season looks as if it could be a record-setter. A new report from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is shaping up to be more active than the season's been in years.
The Atlantic
hurricane season could result in 17 to 25 named storms, the report says.
Among those, eight to 13 of them may become hurricanes, and four to
seven of those hurricanes could be major ones. A major hurricane is a
Category 3 or higher hurricane with at least 111 mph winds.
As major factors for its predictions, NOAA points to near-record ocean temperatures, the development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean, and reduced Atlantic trade winds.
The agency also says the weather conditions have the potential to create an above-average West African monsoon. Such weather activity, the center notes, "can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms."
In short, the conditions are ripe for serious tropical storm activity this year. And with hurricanes getting stronger and wetter, serious damage could result once the storms make landfall.
NOAA also released the tropical storm name list, showing the names used for tropical cyclones, which can become hurricanes. This year, the list starts with Alberto and ends with William.
If NOAA's prediction holds, 2024 will outpace 2023's unexpectedly high storm numbers. Scientists have pointed to increasing ocean temperatures as the cause of the more intense storm seasons. Those high temperatures are expected to make an impact again this year.
Though the agency says it's 70% sure of its prediction this year, predictions aren't perfect. NOAA forecast an aggressive hurricane season in 2022 that ultimately ended up being less intense than predicted. And the organization predicted a relatively tame 2023 that ended up being the fourth most active storm season ever recorded and included Hurricane Lee, a Category 5 storm with sustained winds of up to 165 mph.
Still, uncertainty aside, if you live in a hurricane-prone spot, it might be a good idea to remember the old adage, Better safe than sorry. NOAA notes that hurricane season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
